/STIR: Goldman: BoE In A Holding Pattern, CPI Important For Direction

Goldman Sachs expect “relatively little change in the BoE’s message this week.”

• They note that “recent labour market data has been mixed, and progress on wages is encouraging. On that note, we will watch for the MPC’s assessment on wages, given roughly half of UK pay settlements are in April.”
• “And although a full assessment will come only with the staff projections in May, MPC views on the possible impact of recent fiscal news will also be relevant - we think the growth and inflation impacts are unlikely to impact the MPC’s policy path this year.”
• “In any case, we do think that markets are likely to put more weight on the path for spot inflation - in particular that of core services.”
• “With only half a cut priced by the June meeting, we think the asymmetry into the print is for lower yields: a downside surprise there could consolidate market views around a June cut.”
• “We continue to recommend receiving Dec-24 pricing.”