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STIR: Holding Yesterday’s Trimming Of Cut Expectations Ahead Of Fed

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates are fractionally lower on the day for the next two FOMC meetings but beyond that 0.5-1bp higher, having drifted more notably higher yesterday to lift away from post-WFJ/FT lows with help from a retail sales beat.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 41bp for today, 78bp Nov, 115bp Dec, 152bp Jan and 225bp June.
  • FOMC-dated OIS maintains its recent spread, implying close to 38-38.5bp of cuts for today’s meeting. Either way, we're heading to the meeting with highly unusual uncertainty around its decision.
  • A reminder you can find the full MNI Fed Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Sep2024_With_Analysts_c11bf0c49a.pdf
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are fractionally lower on the day for the next two FOMC meetings but beyond that 0.5-1bp higher, having drifted more notably higher yesterday to lift away from post-WFJ/FT lows with help from a retail sales beat.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 41bp for today, 78bp Nov, 115bp Dec, 152bp Jan and 225bp June.
  • FOMC-dated OIS maintains its recent spread, implying close to 38-38.5bp of cuts for today’s meeting. Either way, we're heading to the meeting with highly unusual uncertainty around its decision.
  • A reminder you can find the full MNI Fed Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Sep2024_With_Analysts_c11bf0c49a.pdf