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STIR: Just ~100bp Of Fed Cuts To Mid-2025

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s sizeable shift higher from a combination of a sizeable beat for ADP employment plus the healthy composition to GDP growth and firmer-than-expected core PCE inflation.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23.5bp Nov, 43bp Dec, 57bp Jan and 101bp June.
  • Having pushed back above pre-JOLTS levels, mid-2025 implied rates are at recent highs.
  • There’s a deluge of important data releases today at 0830ET, with the monthly PCE report for Sept, ECI for Q3 and weekly jobless claims. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s sizeable shift higher from a combination of a sizeable beat for ADP employment plus the healthy composition to GDP growth and firmer-than-expected core PCE inflation.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23.5bp Nov, 43bp Dec, 57bp Jan and 101bp June.
  • Having pushed back above pre-JOLTS levels, mid-2025 implied rates are at recent highs.
  • There’s a deluge of important data releases today at 0830ET, with the monthly PCE report for Sept, ECI for Q3 and weekly jobless claims.