MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, November 20

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Aluminium Exporters To Renegotiate Prices

MNI BRIEF: BOJ October Real Export Index Falls 4.9% M/M

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY69.1 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1935 Weds; +0.09% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY302.1 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +1.7% SA THRU NOV 15 WK

MNI: EUROZONE SEP CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT -0.1% M/M, -1.6% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY OCT PRODUCER PRICES -1.1% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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STIR: Little Change In Near-Term Fed Rates, Fedspeak Eyed

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed out to mid-2025, with likely focus on today’s Fedspeak amidst a very little data docket.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 21bp Jan, 36bp Mar and 55bp June.
  • From a monetary policy angle, permanent voters Cook and Bowman are of particular interest before ’25 voter Collins. Following last week’s hawkish Fedspeak, including from a previously dovish Gov. Kugler (recap here), we watch for both openness to a pause in December and any views on neutral rate estimates.
  • Leading hawk Bowman refrained from dissenting to the 25bp cut at the Nov 6-7 FOMC meeting having objected to the 50bp cut in September, but these will be her first comments since both the US election and the Nov FOMC. Recall that Dallas Fed's Logan mused last week that the Fed had
    perhaps already reached neutral rates. Gov. Cook meanwhile last spoke early Oct/late Sept.  
  • 1000ET – VC Supervision testifies on prudential regulator oversight (text + Q&A).
  • 1100ET – Gov Cook on economic outlook and mon pol (text + Q&A)
  • 1215ET – Gov Bowman on the approach to agency policymaking (text + Q&A)
  • 1600ET – Collins (’25 voter) speaks on mon pol (text + Q&A)
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed out to mid-2025, with likely focus on today’s Fedspeak amidst a very little data docket.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 21bp Jan, 36bp Mar and 55bp June.
  • From a monetary policy angle, permanent voters Cook and Bowman are of particular interest before ’25 voter Collins. Following last week’s hawkish Fedspeak, including from a previously dovish Gov. Kugler (recap here), we watch for both openness to a pause in December and any views on neutral rate estimates.
  • Leading hawk Bowman refrained from dissenting to the 25bp cut at the Nov 6-7 FOMC meeting having objected to the 50bp cut in September, but these will be her first comments since both the US election and the Nov FOMC. Recall that Dallas Fed's Logan mused last week that the Fed had
    perhaps already reached neutral rates. Gov. Cook meanwhile last spoke early Oct/late Sept.  
  • 1000ET – VC Supervision testifies on prudential regulator oversight (text + Q&A).
  • 1100ET – Gov Cook on economic outlook and mon pol (text + Q&A)
  • 1215ET – Gov Bowman on the approach to agency policymaking (text + Q&A)
  • 1600ET – Collins (’25 voter) speaks on mon pol (text + Q&A)