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STIR: Little Change In Near-Term Fed Rates, Fedspeak Eyed

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed out to mid-2025, with likely focus on today’s Fedspeak amidst a very little data docket.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 21bp Jan, 36bp Mar and 55bp June.
  • From a monetary policy angle, permanent voters Cook and Bowman are of particular interest before ’25 voter Collins. Following last week’s hawkish Fedspeak, including from a previously dovish Gov. Kugler (recap here), we watch for both openness to a pause in December and any views on neutral rate estimates.
  • Leading hawk Bowman refrained from dissenting to the 25bp cut at the Nov 6-7 FOMC meeting having objected to the 50bp cut in September, but these will be her first comments since both the US election and the Nov FOMC. Recall that Dallas Fed's Logan mused last week that the Fed had
    perhaps already reached neutral rates. Gov. Cook meanwhile last spoke early Oct/late Sept.  
  • 1000ET – VC Supervision testifies on prudential regulator oversight (text + Q&A).
  • 1100ET – Gov Cook on economic outlook and mon pol (text + Q&A)
  • 1215ET – Gov Bowman on the approach to agency policymaking (text + Q&A)
  • 1600ET – Collins (’25 voter) speaks on mon pol (text + Q&A)
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed out to mid-2025, with likely focus on today’s Fedspeak amidst a very little data docket.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 21bp Jan, 36bp Mar and 55bp June.
  • From a monetary policy angle, permanent voters Cook and Bowman are of particular interest before ’25 voter Collins. Following last week’s hawkish Fedspeak, including from a previously dovish Gov. Kugler (recap here), we watch for both openness to a pause in December and any views on neutral rate estimates.
  • Leading hawk Bowman refrained from dissenting to the 25bp cut at the Nov 6-7 FOMC meeting having objected to the 50bp cut in September, but these will be her first comments since both the US election and the Nov FOMC. Recall that Dallas Fed's Logan mused last week that the Fed had
    perhaps already reached neutral rates. Gov. Cook meanwhile last spoke early Oct/late Sept.  
  • 1000ET – VC Supervision testifies on prudential regulator oversight (text + Q&A).
  • 1100ET – Gov Cook on economic outlook and mon pol (text + Q&A)
  • 1215ET – Gov Bowman on the approach to agency policymaking (text + Q&A)
  • 1600ET – Collins (’25 voter) speaks on mon pol (text + Q&A)