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STIR: Little Movement In EUR STIRs, Over 160bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec '25

STIR
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EUR STIRs around levels seen late Monday.

  • Euribor futures essentially unchanged, consolidating yesterday’s rally.
  • ECB-dated OIS shows 29bp of cuts for next week’s meeting and 163bp of easing through December ’25.
  • Little lasting reaction to Monday’s dovish comments from the hawkish leaning Kazaks.
  • December ’25 pricing has seen a ~40bp dovish move since early November, with weak PMI data and spill over from incoming U.S. President Trump’s perceived policy preferences driving most of that move.
  • ERZ5 has hit the highest level seen since Aug ’22.
  • Comments from ECB’s Cipollone & Panetta are scheduled for today, although the settings of those addresses may mean that they do not provide anything on monetary policy.
  • Scheduled Wednesday comments from ECB President Lagarde could provide some influential pre-meeting steer.
  • We are also on the lookout for impromptu ECB speak ahead of the pre-meeting quiet period, which goes into play later this week.

ECB Meeting

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EUR STIRs around levels seen late Monday.

  • Euribor futures essentially unchanged, consolidating yesterday’s rally.
  • ECB-dated OIS shows 29bp of cuts for next week’s meeting and 163bp of easing through December ’25.
  • Little lasting reaction to Monday’s dovish comments from the hawkish leaning Kazaks.
  • December ’25 pricing has seen a ~40bp dovish move since early November, with weak PMI data and spill over from incoming U.S. President Trump’s perceived policy preferences driving most of that move.
  • ERZ5 has hit the highest level seen since Aug ’22.
  • Comments from ECB’s Cipollone & Panetta are scheduled for today, although the settings of those addresses may mean that they do not provide anything on monetary policy.
  • Scheduled Wednesday comments from ECB President Lagarde could provide some influential pre-meeting steer.
  • We are also on the lookout for impromptu ECB speak ahead of the pre-meeting quiet period, which goes into play later this week.

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less