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STIR: Markets Move On From 50bp Fed Cut Weighing 25bp or 50bp In Nov

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for the next FOMC meeting in November but beyond that are 1-3bp lower out to mid-2025.
  • It leaves a rate path mostly 7-8bp lower than pre-FOMC decision levels after it cut 50bp (vs 50/50 pricing of a 25bp or 50bp cut), although Powell describing it as a recalibration of policy with no indication of planned large cuts leaves a path 1-2.5bp higher than before the press conference.
  • Cumulative cuts from assumed 4.83% effective: 34bp Nov, 72bp Dec, 106bp Jan and 177bp June. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for the next FOMC meeting in November but beyond that are 1-3bp lower out to mid-2025.
  • It leaves a rate path mostly 7-8bp lower than pre-FOMC decision levels after it cut 50bp (vs 50/50 pricing of a 25bp or 50bp cut), although Powell describing it as a recalibration of policy with no indication of planned large cuts leaves a path 1-2.5bp higher than before the press conference.
  • Cumulative cuts from assumed 4.83% effective: 34bp Nov, 72bp Dec, 106bp Jan and 177bp June.