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STIR: New ‘Hawkish’ Extreme In End-2024 ECB Implied Cuts

STIR
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ECB-dated OIS contracts price 60bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024, a new ‘hawkish’ extreme for this cycle.

  • A 25bps cut in June remains almost 90% discounted.
  • ERZ4 is now through the April 30 low flagged earlier, as markets digest this morning’s May flash PMIs.
  • The firmer than-expected German PMI readings drove the initial pressure across STIRs/core FI, with the Eurozone-wide print providing no relief.
  • The UK PMI data has facilitated some stabilisation in the last few minutes.
  • Focus now turns to the ECB’s negotiated wages indicator, due at 1000BST.
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ECB-dated OIS contracts price 60bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024, a new ‘hawkish’ extreme for this cycle.

  • A 25bps cut in June remains almost 90% discounted.
  • ERZ4 is now through the April 30 low flagged earlier, as markets digest this morning’s May flash PMIs.
  • The firmer than-expected German PMI readings drove the initial pressure across STIRs/core FI, with the Eurozone-wide print providing no relief.
  • The UK PMI data has facilitated some stabilisation in the last few minutes.
  • Focus now turns to the ECB’s negotiated wages indicator, due at 1000BST.