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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Year-End Easing Pared Ahead Of RBA Decision

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Ahead of tomorrow’s RBA Policy Decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across 2025 meetings, with a cumulative 15bps of easing priced by year-end.

  • Australia stands out within the $-bloc in terms of year-end official rate expectations, with rates firming over the past ten days.
  • Meanwhile, in the rest of the $-bloc, year-end rate expectations have softened by 19bps in the US, 12bps in Canada, and 5bps in New Zealand.
  • The latest setback for easing expectations in Australia came after Thursday’s Employment Report for August surprised on the upside, with employment rising by 47k m/m versus the 26k estimate.
  • The December 2024 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: 4.14%, -94bps (FOMC); 3.53%, -72bps (BoC); 4.17%, -16bps (RBA); and 4.42%, -83bps (RBNZ).

 

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Ahead of tomorrow’s RBA Policy Decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across 2025 meetings, with a cumulative 15bps of easing priced by year-end.

  • Australia stands out within the $-bloc in terms of year-end official rate expectations, with rates firming over the past ten days.
  • Meanwhile, in the rest of the $-bloc, year-end rate expectations have softened by 19bps in the US, 12bps in Canada, and 5bps in New Zealand.
  • The latest setback for easing expectations in Australia came after Thursday’s Employment Report for August surprised on the upside, with employment rising by 47k m/m versus the 26k estimate.
  • The December 2024 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: 4.14%, -94bps (FOMC); 3.53%, -72bps (BoC); 4.17%, -16bps (RBA); and 4.42%, -83bps (RBNZ).

 

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