STIR: SONIA Futures Rally On Spill Over From Dovish Fed Pieces

SONIA futures rally, following SOFR, last flat to +4.0.

• BoE-dated OIS 1-7bp more dovish through mid ’25, showing ~49bp of cuts through the December ’24 MPC and ~136bp of cuts through June ’25.
• The move in the U.S. short end came on the back of a dovish article from WSJ Fedwatcher Timiraos (which left a 50bp Sep cut on the table).
• Further support came from ex-NY Fed President Dudley, who pointed to a strong case for a 50bp Fed cut later this month.
• The rhetoric from Timiraos didn’t seem as forceful some previous instances, meaning that most analysts should retain their base case of a 25bp cut.
• The BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey is due today. Don’t expect it to be a meaningful market mover intraday, but it will feed into the BoE’s assessment of wider inflationary trends