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/STIR: Strong NFP Report Would Pose Greater Risk To Market Positioning

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We believe that a hawkish labour market report would present a greater risk to markets than a dovish outcome, with several factors at play:

  • Markets are looking for a dovish NFP print, with the headline number expected to moderate after a surprisingly strong May, while the BBG whisper number sits below consensus (last +187K).
  • This week’s softer labour market and ISM data.
  • 2-Year yields trade ~3bp above the low of their multi-week range.
  • Net long setting and short cover seen in Tsy & SOFR futures earlier this week, along with a modest long bias in the J.P.Morgan Tsy client positioning survey.
  • Curve steepener plays following increased odds of a second Presidential term for Trump may also come under pressure if the report is particularly strong.
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We believe that a hawkish labour market report would present a greater risk to markets than a dovish outcome, with several factors at play:

  • Markets are looking for a dovish NFP print, with the headline number expected to moderate after a surprisingly strong May, while the BBG whisper number sits below consensus (last +187K).
  • This week’s softer labour market and ISM data.
  • 2-Year yields trade ~3bp above the low of their multi-week range.
  • Net long setting and short cover seen in Tsy & SOFR futures earlier this week, along with a modest long bias in the J.P.Morgan Tsy client positioning survey.
  • Curve steepener plays following increased odds of a second Presidential term for Trump may also come under pressure if the report is particularly strong.