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STIR: Waller Drives Odds Of Second 50bp Cut In Nov To 50/50

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have slipped on Gov. Waller’s apparent concern about inflation undershooting, including four-month core PCE running around 1.8% annualized.  
  • Cut expectations lift 2bp for Nov and Dec to 37bp and 73bp respectively, and up to 4.5bp out in 1H25 – see below table for a comparison.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 37bp Nov, 73bp Dec, 107bp Jan and 176bp June. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have slipped on Gov. Waller’s apparent concern about inflation undershooting, including four-month core PCE running around 1.8% annualized.  
  • Cut expectations lift 2bp for Nov and Dec to 37bp and 73bp respectively, and up to 4.5bp out in 1H25 – see below table for a comparison.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 37bp Nov, 73bp Dec, 107bp Jan and 176bp June.