Strikes On Hezbollah & Hamas Figures Changes Security Landscape (1/3)

Two notable strikes against senior figures within militant groups opposed to Israel within the past 24 hours could have a significant impact on the security outlook for the Middle East.

• Late on 30 July, Israel carried out an air strike on a suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, hitting a building containing senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Israel claims that Shukr was killed in the attack, while Hezbollah has only confirmed that he was in the building.
• Several hours later the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a raid in the Iranian capital Tehran. He had been in attendance for the swearing-in of new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the killing.

• It remains unclear whether Haniyeh's killing brings the prospect of an end to the conflict in Gaza closer, or pushes it away. The loss of its most senior figure yet could push remaining Hamas leaders to consider taking current ceasefire-for-hostage release efforts given the prospect of Israel targeting them personally.
• Alternatively, such a high-profile attack could see Hamas cut-off talks, with leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar maintaining military operations against the IDF.
• The killing of Haniyeh also makes continuing talks, at least in the short term, more difficult given his position as Hamas' political leader who has lived in the Qatari capital Doha since 2017 and therefore been a key figure in the indirect negotiations to date.