Strikes On Hezbollah & Hamas Figures Changes Security Landscape (3/3)

Two notable strikes against senior figures within militant groups opposed to Israel within the past 24 hours could have a significant impact on the security outlook for the Middle East (see 'Strikes On Hezbollah & Hamas Figures Changes Security Landscape (1/3) and (2/3)' 0934BST for additional detail).

Iranian Response

• The Iranian response to an attack carried out on such a high-profile figure within its own capital will prove important. Pres. Pezeshkian said Iran will make 'the terrorist occupiers' regret 'their cowardly act' of killing Haniyeh. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said "the [Israeli] regime prepared the ground for a harsh punishment."
• Given that Haniyeh met with Khamenei a short time before his killing, there will be major concerns within the Iranian hierarchy as to their own personal safety.
• In April, a presumed Israeli strike on an annex to the Iranian consulate in Damascus led to a mass kamizake drone and missile attackthat was Iran's first-ever direct strike against Israel. There is the prospect that the high-profile killing of Haniyeh prompts a similar response.
• Hamas and Hezbollah are not the only groups in the so-called 'axis of resistance' that Iran has proxy control over. The Houthi rebels in Yemen as well as numerous militias in Iraq are seen to take commands (or at least be strongly influenced by) Tehran and in particular the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force.
• The wide network of the 'axis' means that it may not just be Israel that is targeted, but an escalation in attacks on shipping in and around the Red Sea, or even attacks against Israel's allies in the region (notably US military bases).