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MNI: FED'S POWELL STILL SEES POSSIBLE PATH TO SOFT LANDING

MNI: POWELL: FED PREPARED TO TIGHTEN FURTHER IF APPROPRIATE

FED'S GOOLSBEE: 'YOU CAN'T BACK OUT NOW' ON INFLATION FIGHT

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MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

Strong 20Y Bond Auction Lifts Tsys off Lows

US TSYS
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  • Tsy futures drifting near post-20Y auction highs after the bell, curves bull flattening with the short end underperforming. At the moment, Dec'23 10Y futures are +4 at 108-28 vs. 108-29.5 high, 2y10y curve -4.094 at -49.314.
  • TYZ3 traded in a narrow, lower range for much of the first half (108-16 to -19) until the strong $16B 20Y bond auction (912810TW8) traded through: draws 4.780% high yield vs. 4.790% WI; 2.58x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.59x.
  • Little react to Richmond Fed President Barkin comments on midday interview by Fox: "NOW ISN'T BIG TIME FOR FORWARD GUIDANCE ON RATES; OVERALL, CORE INFLATION NUMBERS COMING DOWN NICELY," while Barkin focuses "ON INFLATION TO DECIDE RATE MOVES".
  • Little react to this morning's Conference Board’s leading index that provided another weaker than expected data set: falling -0.8% (cons -0.7%) in September after -0.7%, for its largest monthly decline since October.
  • Busy schedule ahead for the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week. CME Group schedule: full session Wednesday, Thursday close (Globex reopens 1800ET), early close Friday (floor at 1300ET, Globex at 1315ET).
  • Tuesday focus on Existing Home Sale and FOMC Minutes for the November meeting. Wednesday, meanwhile, sees weekly claims, durables/cap-goods and UofM conditions/inflation expectations.
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  • Tsy futures drifting near post-20Y auction highs after the bell, curves bull flattening with the short end underperforming. At the moment, Dec'23 10Y futures are +4 at 108-28 vs. 108-29.5 high, 2y10y curve -4.094 at -49.314.
  • TYZ3 traded in a narrow, lower range for much of the first half (108-16 to -19) until the strong $16B 20Y bond auction (912810TW8) traded through: draws 4.780% high yield vs. 4.790% WI; 2.58x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.59x.
  • Little react to Richmond Fed President Barkin comments on midday interview by Fox: "NOW ISN'T BIG TIME FOR FORWARD GUIDANCE ON RATES; OVERALL, CORE INFLATION NUMBERS COMING DOWN NICELY," while Barkin focuses "ON INFLATION TO DECIDE RATE MOVES".
  • Little react to this morning's Conference Board’s leading index that provided another weaker than expected data set: falling -0.8% (cons -0.7%) in September after -0.7%, for its largest monthly decline since October.
  • Busy schedule ahead for the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week. CME Group schedule: full session Wednesday, Thursday close (Globex reopens 1800ET), early close Friday (floor at 1300ET, Globex at 1315ET).
  • Tuesday focus on Existing Home Sale and FOMC Minutes for the November meeting. Wednesday, meanwhile, sees weekly claims, durables/cap-goods and UofM conditions/inflation expectations.