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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CEE
- The surge in geopolitical uncertainty in recent weeks generated a strong demand for 'safe assets' and left CEE currencies vulnerable, which gave up all of their early 2022 gains.
- Weakness in CEE currencies put policymakers in a difficult position as weaker currencies keep supporting inflation expectations, therefore pressuring central banks to tighten more aggressively.
- In addition, the 'strong' dependence of CEE countries to Russian gas will also add more pressures on prices in the medium term, offsetting all the governments' 'efforts' to lower CPI inflation.
- This chart (source: Statista) shows that Russia supplies about 40% of Poland nat gas imports.
- Bulgaria and Serbia, which have been keeping rate unchanged despite surging inflation, dramatically rely on Russian gas with a 'dependence' rate of 77% and 89%, respectively.
- As the RSD and BGN are 'pegged' to the Euro, both central banks are likely to mirror the ECB policy outlook in order to avoid currency interventions as rising interest rate differential will drive RSD or BGN higher (vs. Euro).
Source: Statista
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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