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Strong Employ Data Keeps Taper Talk Alive

US TSYS SUMMARY
Stronger than expected July employment (+943k vs. +858k est) and up-revisions to May-June of 119k, weighed heavily on Tsys, supporting equities (for the most part) as solid data is a step in the right direction on "substantial further progress".
  • Tsy 10-30Y yields climbed back to mid-July levels: 30YY 1.9454% high, 10YY 1.2986% high; yield curves bear steepening in shorts to intermediates.
  • The +943k jobs gain for July NFP further underscores JP Morgan's opinion that last week's FOMC's "statement language made November a live possibility for a tapering announcement."
    • While keeping November "in play," JPM said "September is probably too soon to be consistent with their providing "advance notice," but even without a taper announcement, the September dots for '22 should keep the Fed interesting next month."
    • JPM adds "both the workweek and earnings data remain consistent with effective constraints on labor supply, perhaps related to expanded unemployment benefits. About half the states terminated those benefits between the June and July survey weeks, but so far there is no visible imprint on the data (state-level July jobs data will be released in three weeks)."
  • Slow start for data risk next week, focus on CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday. Late Friday, the 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 0.2063%, 5-Yr is up 4bps at 0.7645%, 10-Yr is up 6.5bps at 1.2885%, and 30-Yr is up 7.1bps at 1.9323%.
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