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Strong labour data - but probably not going to sway any MPC member's vote

UK DATA
  • Overall this labour market report was expected to be strong but it beat expectations. Still a question mark over whether it is enough for the BOE to hike Thursday with the relative importance MPC members place on Omicron concerns likely the swaying factor, with the pure economic argument for a hike strong.
  • Interestingly as well, the ONS is no longer providing a measure of underlying wage growth as it notes most of the base/temporary effects have worked their way out - in effect saying that 4.9% wage growth in bonuses (4.3% for regular pay) is now a more valid number to look at (and still much higher than the pre-Covid averages).
  • That perceived inability of today's data to change the decisions of MPC members is what is driving the lack of reaction in the pound.
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