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Strong Retail Sales Data Interpreted As Sign Of Consumer's Recovery

POLAND

Statistics Poland released another batch of macroeconomic data, the highlight being a recovery in retail sales, which turned out better than expected. This came alongside a better-than-expected consumer confidence print, which corroborated the view that household consumption will help power economic recovery going forward.

  • Retail sales came in at +4.8% Y/Y in October, narrowly beating the +4.7% consensus forecast, while real retail sales printed at +2.8% Y/Y versus +1.7% expected. Construction output rose 9.8% Y/Y, missing the +11.0% median estimate. Consumer confidence recovered to -15.1 in November versus -15.1 prior.
  • ING note that a rebound in real disposable income, fuelled by falling inflation and solid wage growth, will support a recovery of private consumption in the coming quarters.
  • mBank wrote that retail sales data confirms the "power of the consumer," with sentiment improving, real wages on the rise and inflation expectations increasing. In their view, this is consistent with an increasingly hawkish stance of the MPC and strongly diverges with the MPC's assessment of the situation from September.
  • PKO note that retail sales return to growth "with a bang", with real retail sales recording the first Y/Y growth since December 2022. They see it as a sign of the imminent recovery in private consumption, which draws support from improving sentiment and rising real incomes of households.

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