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US TSY FLOWS: Strong risk-off bid for rates all session, kicked off early London
trade on headlines that China officials doubt long-term (phase 2) deal w/US.
Kicking rates higher midmorning: Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.9 points to
43.2 in October, the lowest level since December 2015. Sights now on Fri's Oct
NFP if data comes in anywhere near Sep (+136k), or there are strong up-revisions
(unlikely) to prior, Tsys are going to reverse current levels.
- Sources reported prop and real$ buying 10s, small 3M10Y steepener unwinds put
on earlier in week. Eurodollar futures climbed higher as well post data, lead
quarterly gained +0.030 as rate cut chances for year end gather momentum day
after Fed dropped rate for third time this year. Bbg model showed 31.5% vs. 25%
pre-open. Option flows leaning towards better upside call buying.
- Large midday Block buying 2s, 5s and 10s underpinned futures while
market-on-close month-end flow saw Tsys retrace slightly, mixed curve flow,
light corporate hedging. The 2-Yr yield is down 7.6bps at 1.5219%, 5-Yr is down
9bps at 1.5163%, 10-Yr is down 8.4bps at 1.6875%, and 30-Yr is down 7.5bps at