MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Customs Clearance

MNI INTERVIEW2: Policy Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: SlovGB Auction Monday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -62 BCF TO 1,698 BCF MAR 07 WK

MNI: US FEB FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.0%, EX FOOD, ENERGY -0.1%

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Stronger But Off Bests After Bus. Conf. & Cond. Improve

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +5.0) are stronger but off session bests after business conditions improved in December, driven by the retail sector and increased consumer spending.

  • The NAB survey showed that conditions climbed 3 points to +6, reversing declines from the prior month and almost returning to its long-run average. The gains were led by a “notable uplift” in retail which re-entered positive territory for the first time since November 2023. Business confidence edged up 1 point to -2.
  • Cash US tsys are ~2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s strong rally.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +3 to +7.
  • Tomorrow’s Q4 CPI data could be pivotal in determining whether the RBA initiates a long-anticipated monetary easing cycle. It may also influence the timing of an election, which must be held by May 17. Economists predict the trimmed-mean CPI will have declined to 3.3%, marking its lowest level in three years.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (123%), with the probability of a February cut at 78% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%). 
204 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +5.0) are stronger but off session bests after business conditions improved in December, driven by the retail sector and increased consumer spending.

  • The NAB survey showed that conditions climbed 3 points to +6, reversing declines from the prior month and almost returning to its long-run average. The gains were led by a “notable uplift” in retail which re-entered positive territory for the first time since November 2023. Business confidence edged up 1 point to -2.
  • Cash US tsys are ~2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s strong rally.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +3 to +7.
  • Tomorrow’s Q4 CPI data could be pivotal in determining whether the RBA initiates a long-anticipated monetary easing cycle. It may also influence the timing of an election, which must be held by May 17. Economists predict the trimmed-mean CPI will have declined to 3.3%, marking its lowest level in three years.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (123%), with the probability of a February cut at 78% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).