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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
Q3 nominal retail sales rose 0.8% q/q after 0.4% the previous quarter but the annual rate eased to 1.9% y/y from 3.5%. It has been trending lower since the pandemic-impacted peak in Q3 2022. Retail sales volumes are released on Friday and with the Q3 CPI rising over a percent, it looks as though they will contract for the fourth consecutive quarter. As a result, the RBA is likely to look through the strength in September sales values, which were boosted by a number of one-off factors anyway.
- When Q3 nominal sales are deflated with headline CPI, goods CPI or our proxy of retail prices, they all result in real sales declining -0.3%/-0.4% q/q, around the Bloomberg consensus. Last quarter the goods CPI was the most accurate deflator coming in line with the actual 0.5% q/q decline. In Q1 it was the retail price proxy. Both are signalling an annual decline of more than 2.5% y/y.
Australia real retail sales estimates y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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