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Substantial Upward Revisions In NY Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend

  • The NY Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) estimate increased to 4.9% in Jan (+0.1pp on latest data) after what was seen at 3.7% in its original December estimate.
  • “The pickup in the MCT in the last two months has been driven in roughly equal parts by the core goods and core services ex-housing components.”
  • The BEA release of PCE data for Jan'23 included substantial revisions to the price data for the last three months of 2022. Trend dynamics remain roughly the same, peaking May/June 2022 and then declining throughout Q3 but the MCT level is now higher. Further the decline from the mid-year peak is not as pronounced, and rather than plateauing the trend picked up again in the last two months.

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Source: NY Fed

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