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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSubstantial Upward Revisions In NY Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend
- The NY Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) estimate increased to 4.9% in Jan (+0.1pp on latest data) after what was seen at 3.7% in its original December estimate.
- “The pickup in the MCT in the last two months has been driven in roughly equal parts by the core goods and core services ex-housing components.”
- The BEA release of PCE data for Jan'23 included substantial revisions to the price data for the last three months of 2022. Trend dynamics remain roughly the same, peaking May/June 2022 and then declining throughout Q3 but the MCT level is now higher. Further the decline from the mid-year peak is not as pronounced, and rather than plateauing the trend picked up again in the last two months.
Source: NY Fed
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.