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“Sufficient” 75bps Hike Expected

POLAND
  • The Polish government will be focussing on public investments to protect growth over the coming few years, with external economic conditions looking unfavourable, according to the Polish finance minister. Rzeczkowska added that Poland will look to curb inflation while avoiding a recession in 2023.
  • On financing, Rzeczkowska stated that Poland plans no drastic changes to the structure of its debt financing and currently has significant room to “use financing from foreign sources”. On the anti-inflation shield, she said the government is yet to decide on the shape of such an extension, and it is too early to provide details on coal subsidies for heating.
  • In polling run by Rzeczpospolita, ~40% of voters for the current government reject the conditions demanded of Poland as part of the EU’s approval of the post-pandemic spending package, and wish to see further negotiations on spending.
  • The NBP rate decision is due today (no set time), and the bank are expected to raise rates by 75bps to 6.00%. Comments from NBP members over the past month or so clearly argue that the bank are far from the peak of their tightening cycle, with inflation yet to show sufficient signs of cooling to dull the need for further hikes.
  • There remain outside expectations for a 100bps rate rise this month (and a minority looking for 50bps), which eye the sequence of strong core CPI readings feeding into inflation expectations as well as the incoming KPO post-pandemic spending package, which is seen amounting to close to PLN 45bln across the next two years. Inflation dynamics continue to point to an NBP that need to retain a solid tightening bias.
  • Full MNI NBP Preview here: https://marketnews.com/mni-nbp-preview-june-2022-s...

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