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MNI NBP Preview - June 2022: "Sufficient" 75bps Hike Expected

Executive Summary:

  • Board seen sticking to "sufficient" 75bps tightening clip
  • Multi-decade high Core CPI keeps NBP on tightening bias
  • Glapinski to explain rationale on Thursday
Full piece here:

MNINBPJun22.pdf

Following May’s hike to 5.25%, NBP Governor Glapinski defended the bank’s actions, stating that a 75bps hike was a “sufficient signal” for markets, despite the tightening pace falling short of consensus expectations. The May decision has clearly fed into the market’s thinking this month, with the median forecast for a rate rise to 6.00% this month.

There remain outside expectations for a 100bps rate rise this month (and a minority looking for 50bps), which eye the sequence of strong core CPI readings feeding into inflation expectations as well as the incoming KPO post-pandemic spending package, which is seen amounting to close to PLN 45bln across the next two years.

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