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Summary – April 09

LATAM
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News
  • The focus on Tuesday will be on Mexico CPI inflation data for March, with analysts expecting the headline rate to tick up to 4.5% y/y, while core price pressures remain sticky. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey, while Argentina February IP and construction activity data will also cross. In the G10, releases set for the duration of the Tuesday session include US NFIB small business optimism data, with no central bank speakers due.
  • Global News:
    • US - Former Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he’s expecting three interest-rate cuts this year as inflation moves toward the central bank’s target while the economy remains resilient. “At this point, you should probably take the committee and chair at face value — their best guess right now is still three cuts this year,” Bullard said Tuesday in a Bloomberg TV interview.
    • EUROPE - Credit standards across the eurozone were 'broadly unchanged' in Q1 2024, though loan demand from firms declined despite expectations of recovery, the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey showed. The "ongoing central bank balance sheet reduction continued to exert tightening pressure", with banks reporting a small net tightening of credit standards, the ECB said.
    • COMMODITIES - Iron ore headed for its largest two-day rally in more than two years on a brighter consumption outlook as China enters what’s typically the strongest season for steel demand and output. April and May are usually the busiest periods for building in China, and iron ore inventories are showing signs of topping out at ports — falling last week from their highest level since February 2023.
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  • The focus on Tuesday will be on Mexico CPI inflation data for March, with analysts expecting the headline rate to tick up to 4.5% y/y, while core price pressures remain sticky. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey, while Argentina February IP and construction activity data will also cross. In the G10, releases set for the duration of the Tuesday session include US NFIB small business optimism data, with no central bank speakers due.
  • Global News:
    • US - Former Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he’s expecting three interest-rate cuts this year as inflation moves toward the central bank’s target while the economy remains resilient. “At this point, you should probably take the committee and chair at face value — their best guess right now is still three cuts this year,” Bullard said Tuesday in a Bloomberg TV interview.
    • EUROPE - Credit standards across the eurozone were 'broadly unchanged' in Q1 2024, though loan demand from firms declined despite expectations of recovery, the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey showed. The "ongoing central bank balance sheet reduction continued to exert tightening pressure", with banks reporting a small net tightening of credit standards, the ECB said.
    • COMMODITIES - Iron ore headed for its largest two-day rally in more than two years on a brighter consumption outlook as China enters what’s typically the strongest season for steel demand and output. April and May are usually the busiest periods for building in China, and iron ore inventories are showing signs of topping out at ports — falling last week from their highest level since February 2023.