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Summary – August 02

LATAM
  • Brazil industrial production is expected to rebound in June, while Mexico gross fixed investment and unemployment data will also be released on Friday. Elsewhere, BanRep will publish its Q3 monetary policy report. In the G10, currency markets are on watch for today's NFP print (currently expected at +175k, with a whisper number of +170k), with renewed concerns on the pace of the deterioration in the US labour market. The unemployment rate is of interest, and any further tick higher in the rate this month will put it at a new post-pandemic high.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – Nonfarm payrolls are expected to moderate further in July after the slight beat in June was more than offset by large negative revisions to the prior two months. Hurricane Beryl is likely to have the largest impact on the establishment survey, clouding the underlying trends with expected negative impacts on payrolls and hours worked but some upside for AHE growth. A 20-30k miss on payrolls could easily be faded whilst a beat would be an outright positive surprise. Revisions will be particularly important.
    • JAPAN – The Topix index posted its biggest two-day decline since the 2011 tsunami on Friday, a stark turnaround from the record high set in July. The Topix sank 6.1% Friday, completing a two-day drop of 9.2% in the wake of the BoJ’s earlier-than-expected rate hike Wednesday and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish messaging. The Topix joined the Nikkei 225 Stock Average in entering a technical correction.
    • US/ISRAEL (MNI) – President Biden called on Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the current ceasefire-for-hostages deal on the table to end the war in Gaza. Biden also said that the killing of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran, had “not helped" the situation. The entire region remains in a state of heightened alert, with the likelihood of an Iranian-orchestrated retaliation likely in the coming days.
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