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Summary – January 09

LATAM
  • Mexico Industrial & Manufacturing Production data for December headlines the docket at the top of the hour, following Banxico’s unchanged decision on Thursday. Our full review of that meeting will be published shortly. Brazil Services Volume data for December is also scheduled. Argentina wages data rounds off the week’s calendar.
  • Global News:
  • BLS will update seasonal factors affecting CPI inflation through 2019-23 on Friday, Feb 9 “from 0830ET”. This won’t impact the underlying NSA data, but will sway near-term trends and has been flagged by both Fed Governor Waller and Chair Powell referencing the upside surprise in last year’s annual revision. Analysts are mixed, seeing either very little impact or modest uplift in recent trend rates.
  • U.S. economy that continues to defy expectations complicates Federal Reserve calculations on when to begin easing monetary policy, not only due to upside risks for inflation but because it also opens up alternative explanations for why inflation has fallen so quickly, Alan Detmeister, who previously headed the wages and prices section at the Fed Board of Governors, told MNI.
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday accommodative financial conditions will very likely continue even if the BOJ terminates its negative interest rate policy. Ueda told lawmakers that if the BOJ foresees the achievement of its 2% target in a stable and sustainable manner, the Bank will consider whether it is appropriate to continue with various large-scale easy policies, including the negative interest rate.
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