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Summary – July 24

LATAM
  • Mexico bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of July will be published on Wednesday, with analysts expecting headline inflation to rise further to 5.38% y/y, while core moderates to 4.02%. Elsewhere, Chile PPI inflation and Colombia industrial and retail confidence, all for June, are due. In the G10, focus turns to the remaining flash PMI prints, as well as the Bank of Canada rate decision, at which markets are split between a hold and a back-to-back 25bp rate cut, which would put the base rate at 4.50%. US new home sales data are then set to follow for June.
  • Global news:
    • US - Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week's poll before his Sunday exit from the race.
    • US/ISRAEL - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives on Capitol Hill on Wednesday afternoon to address a joint meeting of Congress, where he will confront a legislative body divided over his leadership in the face of international censure over the war in Gaza. “I will seek to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel,” Mr. Netanyahu said before departing Israel. In reality, his visit will underscore the rifts in Congress, particularly among Democrats, over the Israel-Hamas war.
    • JAPAN - The BoJ is likely to debate whether to raise interest rates when it meets next week and unveil a plan to roughly halve bond purchases in coming years, sources said, signalling its resolve to steadily unwind its massive monetary stimulus. The rate decision will depend on how long the board members prefer to wait for clarity on whether consumption will recover and keep inflation stably around the bank's 2% target, said four people familiar with the BoJ's thinking.
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