MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 31

MNI BRIEF: BOJ To Raise Further, No Clues on Timing - Ueda

MNI BRIEF: BOJ's FY26 Inflation View Flat; Upside Risk To FY24, 25 Prices

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY185.57 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1346 Weds; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: China July PMI Contracts For Third Straight Month

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

Flash Inflation In-Line With Tracking; Services Softens But Only Slightly

MNI: EUROZONE JUL FLASH HICP +2.6% Y/Y

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Summary – July 31

LATAM
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsBank of Japan (BOJ) Market NewsFOMC Calendar Market News
  • Central bank interest rate decisions take the focus on Wednesday, with the BCB expected to hold at 10.50%, while BanRep delivers another 50bp cut to 10.75% and the BCCh trims rates by a further 25bp to 5.50%. On the data front, Brazil June unemployment will be followed by Chile activity data for June, including IP and retail sales. Mexico outstanding loans and Colombia unemployment figures are also due. Elsewhere, the Fed decision takes focus, with markets watching for any signal from the FOMC that the bank is closing in on a potential September rate cut.
  • JPY – Central banks continue to roil markets, with the surprise 15bp rate hike from the BoJ to 0.25% leaning against expectations split between no change and a 10bp hike. The resultant JPY strength was compounded by Ueda's tone in the post-decision press conference, at which he strongly suggested the BoJ is only at the beginning of its tightening cycle, and 0.50% would be no ceiling for rates in the near-term.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – The Fed will hold rates for an 8th consecutive meeting today, putting immediate attention on any signals about potential cuts in September. While inflation and the labour market cooled in Q2, providing a clear path to rate cuts by year-end, underlying demand has remained resilient. With the lingering memory of various data "head fakes" in mind, yet a “soft landing” still in reach, the FOMC is likely to express only cautious optimism.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – In addition to the 15bp rate hike to 0.25%, the BoJ also decided to lower its purchase of JGBs by JPY 400bn quarterly. The scale of JGB buying will fall to JPY 2.9tn monthly by Q1 2026. “The bank judged it appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation from the perspective of sustainable and stable achievement of the price stability target of 2%,” the BOJ said in a statement.
    • ISRAEL (MNI) – Two notable strikes against senior figures within militant groups opposed to Israel within the past 24 hours could have a significant impact on the security outlook for the Middle East. Late on 30 July, Israel carried out an air strike on a suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, hitting a building containing senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Israel claims that Shukr was killed in the attack, while Hezbollah has only confirmed that he was in the building.
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  • Central bank interest rate decisions take the focus on Wednesday, with the BCB expected to hold at 10.50%, while BanRep delivers another 50bp cut to 10.75% and the BCCh trims rates by a further 25bp to 5.50%. On the data front, Brazil June unemployment will be followed by Chile activity data for June, including IP and retail sales. Mexico outstanding loans and Colombia unemployment figures are also due. Elsewhere, the Fed decision takes focus, with markets watching for any signal from the FOMC that the bank is closing in on a potential September rate cut.
  • JPY – Central banks continue to roil markets, with the surprise 15bp rate hike from the BoJ to 0.25% leaning against expectations split between no change and a 10bp hike. The resultant JPY strength was compounded by Ueda's tone in the post-decision press conference, at which he strongly suggested the BoJ is only at the beginning of its tightening cycle, and 0.50% would be no ceiling for rates in the near-term.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – The Fed will hold rates for an 8th consecutive meeting today, putting immediate attention on any signals about potential cuts in September. While inflation and the labour market cooled in Q2, providing a clear path to rate cuts by year-end, underlying demand has remained resilient. With the lingering memory of various data "head fakes" in mind, yet a “soft landing” still in reach, the FOMC is likely to express only cautious optimism.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – In addition to the 15bp rate hike to 0.25%, the BoJ also decided to lower its purchase of JGBs by JPY 400bn quarterly. The scale of JGB buying will fall to JPY 2.9tn monthly by Q1 2026. “The bank judged it appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation from the perspective of sustainable and stable achievement of the price stability target of 2%,” the BOJ said in a statement.
    • ISRAEL (MNI) – Two notable strikes against senior figures within militant groups opposed to Israel within the past 24 hours could have a significant impact on the security outlook for the Middle East. Late on 30 July, Israel carried out an air strike on a suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, hitting a building containing senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Israel claims that Shukr was killed in the attack, while Hezbollah has only confirmed that he was in the building.