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Summary – June 13

LATAM
  • Focus on Thursday turns to the BCRP interest rate decision, with the central bank expected to cut by another 25bp to 5.5%, following the return of CPI inflation to target. Brazil April retail sales figures are also due, while the BCCh will publish its latest traders survey. In Argentina, analysts expect monthly CPI inflation to slow further in May. In the US, PPI takes the focus. The central bank speaker slate is quieter, although the Fed's Williams is set to interview the US Treasury Secretary Yellen at 1700BST/1200ET.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – The overall outcome of the June FOMC meeting was hawkish versus expectations, but couldn’t fully reverse the dovish impact of a very soft May CPI report released hours earlier. Markets reacted hawkishly to the new projection for the 2024 median Fed funds rate, which showed just one cut anticipated by year-end, versus three in March’s projection (and 2 widely expected). But the reaction was relatively muted, due in part to the fact that the 2025-26 path was relatively steady, implying 100bp of cuts in each of 2025 and 2026.
    • EU – More euro-area interest-rate reductions are likely if the ECB’s expectations for a further slowdown in inflation materialise, according to Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle. “If the baseline scenario is realised and the data are favourable, then we can probably expect further rate cuts already this year, and then also next year,” the Slovenian central bank chief told Finance newspaper.
    • JAPAN (MNI) - The BoJ is expected to keep the target for the overnight uncollateralized call rate unchanged at 0-0.1%, on June 14. Nevertheless, the trend towards normalisation continues, while the BoJ's sensitivity to foreign exchange rates has also shifted in recent months. We expect a generally hawkish tone at the meeting, indicating the possibility of additional policy tightening ahead, possibly as soon as July. The focus for the June meeting will likely be on balance sheet policy and the future pace of JGB purchases.
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