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Summary – March 11

LATAM
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepageBank of Japan (BOJ) Market News
  • No major data releases in the Latam calendar on Monday, with Mexico ANTAD same-store sales for February and Colombia February consumer confidence scheduled for release later. In the US, the data calendar is also quiet, with just the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations release of note. Later this week, Brazil IPCA inflation data will draw attention, but the main focus will be on US CPI inflation data, due tomorrow.
  • Global News:
    • MIDEAST – President Biden warned Israel against attacking the city of Rafah in southern Gaza as cease-fire talks with Hamas remained deadlocked at the beginning of Ramadan. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with Israel accusing Hamas of stalling in a bid to inflame violence across the region during Ramadan, and Hamas saying more Israeli hostages had died in captivity than earlier believed.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – the BoJ is considering measures to prevent long-term yields from rising sharply after a potential exit from negative interest rates and the removal of the 1% upper limit on 10-year bond yields by as early as the March 18-19 meeting, MNI understands. The Bank could signal that an upper limit on bond yields will remain in place, without making that limit public, and it could also signal that it will continue to buy bonds in a flexible manner as necessary.
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – Chinese CPI inflation rebounded more than expected to 0.7% y/y in February, reversing the consecutive declines since October last year as prices, especially in travel services, rose amid the Chinese New Year holiday. The rise in February CPI outperformed the market consensus of +0.3% and hit the highest level since March 2023.
    • COMMODITIES – Iron ore slumped more than 7% as disappointing demand in China left the market lumbered with bulging inventories. Iron ore has tumbled by around a quarter from a peak in early January as China’s real estate and manufacturing activity remained under pressure. The annual NPC in Beijing, which concludes Monday, offered few prospects of a demand boost, and iron ore stockpiles at ports have risen to the highest in a year.
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  • No major data releases in the Latam calendar on Monday, with Mexico ANTAD same-store sales for February and Colombia February consumer confidence scheduled for release later. In the US, the data calendar is also quiet, with just the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations release of note. Later this week, Brazil IPCA inflation data will draw attention, but the main focus will be on US CPI inflation data, due tomorrow.
  • Global News:
    • MIDEAST – President Biden warned Israel against attacking the city of Rafah in southern Gaza as cease-fire talks with Hamas remained deadlocked at the beginning of Ramadan. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with Israel accusing Hamas of stalling in a bid to inflame violence across the region during Ramadan, and Hamas saying more Israeli hostages had died in captivity than earlier believed.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – the BoJ is considering measures to prevent long-term yields from rising sharply after a potential exit from negative interest rates and the removal of the 1% upper limit on 10-year bond yields by as early as the March 18-19 meeting, MNI understands. The Bank could signal that an upper limit on bond yields will remain in place, without making that limit public, and it could also signal that it will continue to buy bonds in a flexible manner as necessary.
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – Chinese CPI inflation rebounded more than expected to 0.7% y/y in February, reversing the consecutive declines since October last year as prices, especially in travel services, rose amid the Chinese New Year holiday. The rise in February CPI outperformed the market consensus of +0.3% and hit the highest level since March 2023.
    • COMMODITIES – Iron ore slumped more than 7% as disappointing demand in China left the market lumbered with bulging inventories. Iron ore has tumbled by around a quarter from a peak in early January as China’s real estate and manufacturing activity remained under pressure. The annual NPC in Beijing, which concludes Monday, offered few prospects of a demand boost, and iron ore stockpiles at ports have risen to the highest in a year.