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Summary – March 15

LATAM
  • Peru economic activity data for January are published Friday, with activity set to rebound from an unexpected contraction in December. Colombia January IP and retail sales data are also released, alongside the latest BanRep economists survey, ahead of the following week’s MPC meeting. In the US, preliminary UMich sentiment data will be carefully watched for details on inflation expectations ahead of next week’s Fed decision. February industrial production and import/export price indices are also set to cross.
  • Global News:
    • JAPAN (MNI) – The first wages survey showed an average wage hike of 5.28% this year compared to 2023's 3.80%, indicating the strength of the wage-price virtuous cycle and paving the way for the BoJ to phase out its easy policy, the Nikkei reported. The survey results are expected to encourage cautious BoJ policymakers that the economy can achieve the bank’s 2% target and agree to an exit of a large-scale easy policy at the March 18-19 meeting.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – The BoJ is considering adopting a two-tier system for required reserves, in an increasingly likely move away from negative rates at its March 18-19 meeting, MNI understands. Under a new arrangement, financial institutions, mainly banks, will receive a positive rate on excess reserves but only at certain times during the maintenance period, with the BOJ able to adjust these times.
    • MIDEAST – Hamas has proposed what it’s calling a “comprehensive” cease-fire deal, in a bid to move forward talks with Israel as their war in Gaza rages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the militant group is still making unrealistic demands. But the country’s war cabinet is expected to discuss the matter on Friday.
    • EU – The ECB “will be able to gradually start taking its foot off the monetary-policy brake when the summer nears,” Governing Council member Olli Rehn tells Finland’s Kauppalehti. That’s as euro-area inflation is forecast to be nearing the 2% target level this year and the next, Rehn says.
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