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Summary – May 03

LATAM
  • Brazil March outstanding loans data will be released Friday, followed by March industrial production figures. In Mexico, February gross fixed investment and private consumption will cross, alongside the March leading indicator and April vehicle sales. Later, BanRep will publish its Q2 monetary policy report, while Brazil April vehicle sales are also due.
  • In the US, focus turns to the payrolls report for April, at which markets expect 240k jobs to be added, following 303k in March. Average hourly earnings will again be a focus, seen rising 0.3% on the month, and 4.0% on the year. ISM services data follows later, while the Fed's Goolsbee will be the first FOMC member to speak following the decision on Wednesday.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – In today’s payrolls report, private payrolls are seen increasing 190k, implying government job creation at its softest since Nov but still almost more than two and a half times the average pace seen in 2019. Markets will be mindful of household survey volatility but with continued focus on immigration-driven supply side strength, the u/e rate should help guide on broader labour market balance. Few analysts look for an upside surprise for the u/e rate but we wouldn’t rule one out with risk of a dovish reaction.
    • TURKEY - ISRAEL (MNI) – Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat has stated that the trade halt with Israel announced on 2 May will continue until a permanent ceasefire is in place and the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza is secured. These comments appear to go further than the ministry's comments last night, which only referred to the halt remaining until aid flows are secured.
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