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Summary – May 15

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  • Brazil March economic activity data are due on Wednesday, with analysts expecting growth to fall to -2.0% y/y, from +2.6%. Colombia will publish Q1 GDP data, with growth set to edge up to +0.8% y/y, while March economic activity will also be released. In Peru, March economic activity and April unemployment data will cross.
  • Elsewhere, US CPI data take the focus, with markets wary of an out-of-consensus print following the volatile PPI release on Tuesday. Annual core inflation is expected to slow to a new post-pandemic low of 3.6% y/y, and the determinants of PCE will come under particular scrutiny for gauging any Fed policy response.
  • Global News:
    • CHINA - China is considering a proposal to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be one of its most ambitious attempts yet to salvage the beleaguered property market. The State Council is seeking feedback from several provinces and government entities on the preliminary plan, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.
    • EU - The ECB is very likely to start cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting in June, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. Barring surprise shocks, the ECB remains committed to bringing inflation to its 2% goal by next year from 2.4% currently, he said in an interview on RTL radio on Wednesday.
    • COMMODITIES - Copper futures in New York rallied to a record high after a short squeeze that’s prompted a scramble to divert metal in other regions to US shores. The sudden surge, which has seen Comex futures jump by more than 7% this week, has left metal for July delivery to the New York exchange trading at a record premium over later months, and at unprecedentedly high levels compared with copper on other global commodities exchanges.
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  • Brazil March economic activity data are due on Wednesday, with analysts expecting growth to fall to -2.0% y/y, from +2.6%. Colombia will publish Q1 GDP data, with growth set to edge up to +0.8% y/y, while March economic activity will also be released. In Peru, March economic activity and April unemployment data will cross.
  • Elsewhere, US CPI data take the focus, with markets wary of an out-of-consensus print following the volatile PPI release on Tuesday. Annual core inflation is expected to slow to a new post-pandemic low of 3.6% y/y, and the determinants of PCE will come under particular scrutiny for gauging any Fed policy response.
  • Global News:
    • CHINA - China is considering a proposal to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be one of its most ambitious attempts yet to salvage the beleaguered property market. The State Council is seeking feedback from several provinces and government entities on the preliminary plan, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.
    • EU - The ECB is very likely to start cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting in June, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. Barring surprise shocks, the ECB remains committed to bringing inflation to its 2% goal by next year from 2.4% currently, he said in an interview on RTL radio on Wednesday.
    • COMMODITIES - Copper futures in New York rallied to a record high after a short squeeze that’s prompted a scramble to divert metal in other regions to US shores. The sudden surge, which has seen Comex futures jump by more than 7% this week, has left metal for July delivery to the New York exchange trading at a record premium over later months, and at unprecedentedly high levels compared with copper on other global commodities exchanges.