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Summary – May 29

LATAM
  • Banxico will publish its latest inflation report on Wednesday, while in Brazil FGV IGPM inflation, primary budget balance and April labour market data will cross. In the US, Richmond Fed manufacturing data and an appearance from the Fed's Williams are due, ahead of the latest Beige Book from the Fed.
  • Global News:
    • US / ISRAEL – The White House said an Israeli strike on an encampment in Rafah that left dozens dead was devastating but would not cause President Biden to freeze additional arms shipments to the country. The US would be monitoring the investigation into the incident and expected Israel to learn lessons from the airstrike, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
    • CHINA MNI (Beijing) – The IMF has increased its China GDP forecast to 5% this year and 4.5% in 2025, up 0.4 pp for both years, an IMF report said Wednesday. Strong Q1 GDP data and recent policy measures drove the revision, while core inflation will average 1% in 2024, the report said. Authorities' recent property support measures were welcome, but a more comprehensive package would ensure less costly transition while mitigating downside risks, the report noted.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ board member Seiji Adachi said on Wednesday that the Bank could need to adjust the degree of easy policy through rate hikes faster than previously thought. “If the weak yen accelerated or if it is prolonged, there is the possibility that the year-on-year change of consumer price index would reverse earlier than expected," Adachi said.
    • SOUTH AFRICA (MNI) – South African voters head to polling stations today in a highly consequential election, although the results may not be announced until the weekend. Support for the ruling ANC edged higher into the election day, with the closely watched daily tracker estimating it at 42.2% on May 27. If the support for the ANC falls below 50%, the party will need to find a coalition partner for the first time in South Africa's post-Apartheid history.
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