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Summary – May 31

LATAM
  • Chile will publish activity data for April on Friday, including retail sales, IP and copper production. In Mexico, April outstanding loans data will cross, while Colombia will release unemployment figures for April. In addition, BanRep is due to hold a non-monetary policy Board meeting. In the US, focus turns to PCE data for April, at which markets expect another moderation in price pressures in the final reading before the June FOMC decision. The MNI Chicago PMI release for May will also cross.
  • Global News:
    • US – Donald Trump was found guilty in the first criminal trial of a former US president in the nation’s history. After two days of deliberation, a jury of 12 New Yorkers found Trump guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a hush-money payment to a porn star, a conspiracy that prosecutors said deprived voters of vital information before the 2016 election.
    • US – The Fed’s Logan said that high interest rates may not be restraining the economy as much as policymakers anticipate, emphasising it’s important for officials to keep their options open for future adjustments.
    • OIL – OPEC+ is pressing on with informal talks aimed at finalising an agreement on oil-output cuts this weekend, delegates said. Saudi Arabia and its partners are discussing whether to prolong roughly 2 million barrels a day of production curbs into the second half of the year, with the accord to be completed at Sunday’s online gathering, according to the delegates. They’re also considering the possibility of extending some restraints into 2025.
    • EU (MNI) – Eurozone May flash headline printed a tenth above consensus while core inflation came in two tenths above. Headline HICP was 2.6% y/y (2.4% prior) and 0.2% m/m, while core HICP came in at 2.9% y/y (2.7% prior). Looking at the individual categories, services inflation is expected to reach highest levels of this year at +4.1% y/y, after falling to +3.7% in April.
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