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MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • Every single analyst's view has shifted since our post-September MPC meeting views roundup.
  • First hike (out of 23 analysts):
    • 14 analysts expect November 2021 (61%).
    • 6 analysts expect December 2021 (26%).
    • 3 analysts look for February 2022 (13%).
  • All analysts have a first hike of 15bp in their base case with following hikes in 25bp increments. Some see a tail risk of a 40bp hike. SocGen's base case is for a first hike of 15bp in December, but note that a hike in November would more likely to be 25bp rather than 15bp "to convey some sense of urgency" (with the second hike then 15bp).
  • The vast majority of analysts expect the APF programme to continue as planned until mid-December. However, 3 analysts expect an early end to QE (Deutsche Bank, Investec, SEB) while there are a handful more who believe there are benefits to an early end to QE but don't think the BOE will follow through.
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