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Summary of Analyst Views

BOE

We have read through 20 analyst BOE reviews following yesterday's decision by the MPC to hike 25bp.

  • Next hike (out of 20 analysts):
    • 12 analysts look for February 2022 (60%). Ahead of the December MPC meeting, only Nomura had expected Bank Rate to be at 0.50% in February.
    • 5 analysts (25%) look for May 2022.
    • 3 analysts (15%) did not specify the month they expect the next hike, but UniCredit noted that they expect the MPC to “pause”.
  • With the exception of Berenberg, most analysts state that they expect APF reinvestments to cease immediately as soon as Bank Rate reaches 0.50%. Berenberg expects Bank Rate at 0.50% by February but for passive QT to be announced in May.
  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 19 analysts):
    • 6 analysts (32%) look for 1.00% - the level that would trigger a discussion surrounding active gilt sales. SocGen and TD Securities expect this by August.
    • 11 analysts (58%) look for 0.75%
    • 2 analysts (11%) look for 0.50%.
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