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Summary of Analyst Views Following the September Meeting

BOE



  • We have read through 14 analyst reviews of yesterday's BOE meeting and all now expect an extension of QE by the end of the year (previously 3/14 of these analysts were looking for no further QE this year namely Barclays, JP Morgan and Nomura).
  • In actual fact, half of the analysts have changed their base case expectations – two of these have been slightly hawkish timing changes. Bank of America has pushed back its rate cut expectations to February (albeit noting it has "more conviction" in rate cuts overall) while Pantheon expects GBP50bln QE in December rather than November, noting that the data may not appear soft enough by November.
  • Half the analysts now look for QE to be extended by GBP100bln in November, with most other analysts looking for a GBP50-60bln extension. Morgan Stanley look for a smaller "modest roll-forward" in November ahead of a full package in February.
  • The same four analysts see rate cuts in their base case as previously – RBC, Societe Generale, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
The full MNI BOE Review will be released later today.

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