Summary of Wrightson ICAP's call for FOMC:......>

FED: Summary of Wrightson ICAP's call for FOMC: Broader questions of Fwd

guidance and QE will be deferred, probably until Sep.

- SEP: Could make case for skipping again...Powell has no love for some aspects

of the format, would not be a major surprise if the FOMC took new approach.

- FF forecasts for 2020-21 clustered at 0; some may expect liftoff by 2022, few

if any will assume more than one/at most two rate hikes. None = negative rates.

- Fwd guidance: No urgency to introduce more explicit guidance. Had a role to

play in the early days of the last cycle, but today investors have little doubt

the Fed is willing to whatever it takes for as long as it takes.

- QE/YCC: Don't expect Powell to provide much concrete guidance about the

outlook for outright purchases of Treasuries and MBS; still labelling them as

'market functioning operations'. By fall, will morph into monetary policy tool.

FOMC will have to decide whether done in YCC framework or more traditional QE.

- Might adopt a YCC framework focused on relatively short Tsy maturities

combined with a quantity-based framework for longer-term MBS that would lean

against rise in term premia. But that's a discussion for another day.