Summit To Get Underway As Meloni Stance On VdL Eyed

European Union leaders meet in Brussels from 1230CET (0630ET, 1130BST) today for a Council meeting in which the sign-off on nominating individuals for key EU portfolios is set to be provided. The nomination of Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission president is a given, but focus will be on the level of opposition.

• Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is seen as likely to vote against her, while Italian PM Giorgia Meloni is seen as a likely backer of VdL (see 'MNI: Meloni To Back Von Der Leyen In EU Commission Deal-Source', 24 June). There are some last-minute jitters that Meloni could instead abstain due to perceptions of the top EU jobs being decided without taking the EU election results into account.
• The conservative European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) group that Meloni presides over is now the third-largest in the European Parliament, but the senior Foreign Affairs position is set to go to Estonian PM Kaja Kallas from the liberal Renew Europe, now in fourth place.
• Meloni's address to the Italian parliament on 26 June, in which she called the EU "an invasive bureaucratic giant", can be seen as being pitched to a domestic audience. The Italian PM finds herself in a position of significant leverage, and as such could simply be seeking a senior Commission role for Italy.
• Only a qualified majority (55% of member states representing 65% of EU population) is required to put VdL forward to the EP for a confirmatory vote (likely 18 July).