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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Leader of the Opposition Sir Keir Starmer will both take part in set-piece policy events on Thursday 4 Jan. Significant policy announcements are seen as unlikely, but the events could be used to set the tone for what is likely to be an election year.
- Speculation mounted over the festive period that a spring election could be on the cards after Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt announced the date of the Budget statement at 6 March (see 'Election Timing Speculation Set To Pick Up As Chancellor Announces Budget Date', 27 Dec).
- However, after an initial spike for Q224, betting market implied probabilities have settled down with Q424 still seen as the most likely window for the election. This period has an implied probability of 56.2% according to Smarkets (see chart below).
- Politico reports that Sunak's event on 4 Jan will be a meeting with members of the public followed by a Q&A. Meanwhile, Starmer is set to deliver a speech focused on bolstering turnout for his centre-left Labour party reports thei Newspaper. While Labour retains a sizeable ~15% lead over Sunak's centre-right Conservatives in opinion polling, the paper reports that there remain concerns as Labour HQ that low voter enthusiasm for Starmer could deny the party a majority in the Commons.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Date of Next General Election by Quarter, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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