Sununu Endorsement Keeps Haley's Longshot Track To GOP Nomination Open

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s longshot track to winning the Republican presidential nomination remains (theoretically) viable after she picked up a critical endorsement from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) yesterday.

• The prevailing view states that, although former President Trump remains the overwhelming favourite, Haley can pull off a shock victory via a win in New Hampshire which would then build support for the next contest in her home state of South Carolina.
• Politico reports: “There are probably less than a dozen across the nation that truly matter in the Republican primary this year — and Sununu’s stamp of approval is one of them... New Hampshire’s early role in the primary calendar amplifies the significance of the otherwise small state. Independents can vote in the primary there, which distinguishes the state from the political calculus at work in Iowa and South Carolina, where the GOP electorates have higher percentages of social conservatives and evangelicals.”
• Politico notes, “one recent poll from Suffolk University/The Boston Globe/USA Today, 86 percent of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters said a Sununu endorsement would not impact their vote, compared to just 13 percent who said it would.”
• Betting markets still see Trump as the overwhelming favourite to take the nomination. According to data from Smarkets, Trump maintains an 80% implied probability of taking the nomination, as he has since late September.