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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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A survey from Ipsos, released over the weekend, has provided more evidence that the winner of the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined by which party can more successful motivate turnout of their base, rather than explicit support for either candidate.
- The survey finds that, while support for both Biden and Trump is weak within their respective parties, only 30% of registered Democrat voters - who intend to vote for Biden - are doing so because they support Biden as a candidate. 57% of Democrat voters intend to cast their ballot as a vote against Trump.
- Ipsos notes: "2024 isn’t going to come down to Trump or Biden convincing Americans to change sides – it’s more a matter of convincing their existing base to actually vote."
- Betting markets and pollsters continue to see Trump as the slight favourite. According to Smarkets, Trump has an implied probability of 48% of winning, compared to 35% for Biden.
- RealClearPolitics' presidential election poll tracker currently shows Trump with a 1.7% advantage over Biden (47.2 - 45.5).
Figure 1: Reasons for Voter Support for Biden and Trump
Source: Ipsos
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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