MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Support From Softer Industrial Prices - 2Y Supply,  Earnings and Home Sales Ahead

US TSYS
  • MNI (London) - Treasuries have seen some support overnight from a softer global growth outlook with industrial commodity prices including iron ore and copper falling further after what’s perceived by some as a lack of major new stimulus from the China Communist Party’s Third Plenum (for example, here).
  • Moves are relatively limited though and leave benchmark tenors across the curve firmly within yesterday’s range after a flow-driven sell-off on a lighter session for headlines.
  • Cash yields are 1.5-2.5bp lower with the front end lagging, but with curves also within ranges including 2s10s at -27.3bps (-0.3bps).
  • TYU4 at 110-28+ (+ 05+) is close to session highs on somewhat subdued cumulative volumes of 260k.
  • Yesterday’s low of 110-18+ cleared support at 110-21+ (20-day EMA) to open 110-07+ (50-day EMA). The latest pullback tests a bullish backdrop which includes resistance at 111-13+ (Jul 16 high).
  • Today sees data focus on existing home sales before 2Y supply is possibly of more note. Last month’s 2Y auction came in almost in-line but with the bid-to-cover of 2.75x the highest since Aug 2023.
  • A heavy docket for earnings is also in focus, with some large names including Alphabet, Tesla and Visa.
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Jul (0830ET), Existing home sales Jun (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Jul (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction -91282CLB5 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 42D CMB Auction (1130ET)
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