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NOK: Supported By Positive Post-US CPI Risk Sentiment And Oil Bid

NOK
USCEEMEABulletNorwayMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America

EURNOK is 0.5% lower today at 11.6650, just above initial support of 11.6627 (Jan 2 low). This level shields 11.6000, a notable pivot level going back to mid-2023, which closely coincides with the December 4 low (11.5998) and the 61.8% retracement of the June-August ’24 rally (11.5953). Positive risk sentiment following the softer-than-expected US CPI report has supported Scandi currencies this afternoon, with today's bid in crude oil futures providing an additional tailwind to the NOK.

  • The weak krone was a key factor behind Norges Bank’s cautious stance through 2024, but strength since the December 19 decision keeps the base case of a March cut firmly intact.
  • The median forecast of analysts tracked by MNI sees four Norges Bank cuts this year (i.e. once per quarter). This is a little more dovish than the December MPR rate path, which tilts in favour of three cuts.
  • Statistics Norway’s Q4 business confidence survey is due tomorrow, the last datapoint ahead of Norges Bank’s January 23 decision. Rates are firmly expected to be kept on hold at that gathering, with last week’s CPI report not delivering enough of a downward surprise to shift consensus.
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EURNOK is 0.5% lower today at 11.6650, just above initial support of 11.6627 (Jan 2 low). This level shields 11.6000, a notable pivot level going back to mid-2023, which closely coincides with the December 4 low (11.5998) and the 61.8% retracement of the June-August ’24 rally (11.5953). Positive risk sentiment following the softer-than-expected US CPI report has supported Scandi currencies this afternoon, with today's bid in crude oil futures providing an additional tailwind to the NOK.

  • The weak krone was a key factor behind Norges Bank’s cautious stance through 2024, but strength since the December 19 decision keeps the base case of a March cut firmly intact.
  • The median forecast of analysts tracked by MNI sees four Norges Bank cuts this year (i.e. once per quarter). This is a little more dovish than the December MPR rate path, which tilts in favour of three cuts.
  • Statistics Norway’s Q4 business confidence survey is due tomorrow, the last datapoint ahead of Norges Bank’s January 23 decision. Rates are firmly expected to be kept on hold at that gathering, with last week’s CPI report not delivering enough of a downward surprise to shift consensus.