- Early sentiment was dictated by further Trump tariff headlines. A 25% tariff to go on all steel and aluminium imports into the US (to be announced Monday US time). The USD was bid, but sits away from best levels now, CAD and JPY are underperforming.
- US Tsy yields sit slightly lower. JGB futures are weaker, -6 compared to the settlement levels, after dealing in a relatively narrow range. Regional equity trends are mixed, while US futures rebounded quickly from opening lows after the tariff headlines crossed.
- Later US January NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB President Lagarde speaks.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Yields Richer Following Trumps 25% Tariffs On Steel
- There was little reaction to headlines out earlier this morning surrounding a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the US. TU is -00 3/8 at 102-22 3/4, while TY is 00+ at 109-08.
- A bull phase in Treasury futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. TY Price has traded through the 50-day EMA of 109-11. This highlights potential for a stronger reversal and sights are on 109.30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 108-20+, Tuesday’s low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal and the end of a corrective cycle.
- In cash tsys today, the belly of the curve is outperforming, with the 2s5s20s -1.5bps at -36.170. The 2yr is -0..8bps at 4.281%, while the 10yr is -1.4bps at 4.481%
- Hedge funds increased their net short position in 5yr note futures to over 3m contracts, the most bearish stance since November, per CFTC data for the week ending Feb. 4. Leveraged funds added $12.8m/DV01 in shorts on 5yr notes and extended net shorts in 10-year and ultra 10yr notes by $7.7m/DV01 combined. Meanwhile, asset managers aggressively unwound net long positions in 10yr note futures by $9.1m/DV01 but increased net longs across most other tenors, including ultra 10yr to ultra-long bonds, by a combined $9.1m/DV01.
- Fed-dated OIS was pricing in approximately 35bp of rate cuts for the year vs. 42bp priced at Thursday close with the first full 25bp of easing moving out to the September policy meeting from July prior
- Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 consolidate vs. Friday (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -2.5bp (-3.9bp), May'25 at -7.3bp (-10.7bp), Jun'25 at -15.8bp (-19.6bp), Jul'25 at -20.6bp (-25.1bp).
- There is little on the calendar today, focus this week is on Powell's testimony to Congress, on Tuesday CPI and Wednesday PPI inflation measures.
GLOBAL MACRO: Canada Again Vulnerable To Latest US Tariffs
US President Trump said that 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminium imports would be announced today. Again Canada is in the firing line as its steel and aluminium make up the largest shares by far of US imports of these products. However, while the US is the world’s second largest steel importer, according to Tradeimex, it is not a major US import but domestically fabricated metals are the 7th largest sector by value added
- Steel imports accounted for only 1.1% of total 2023 imports and aluminium was only 0.9%. Thus these tariffs are unlikely to be a major inflationary issue for the US but will still significantly impact certain sectors who use them as inputs to production, such as autos.
- According to Tradeimex, electronics (14.6% of the total), nuclear reactors & machinery (14.5%), vehicles (12.0%), fuel & oil (8.4%) and pharmaceuticals (5.6%) were the largest categories imported into the US in 2023. Steel and aluminium didn’t feature in the top 10 but it is not surprising that Trump has been vocal on autos.
- The main impact is likely to be felt by the key exporters with Canada and Mexico in the top three for both steel and aluminium. In 2023, Canada accounted for 25% of US steel imports and 39% of aluminium, while Mexico was 11% and 7% respectively.
- 10% of aluminium imports came from China and last week the US already announced a 10% universal tariff on all Chinese imports, according to TrendEconomy. It doesn’t feature in the top source of steel imports but they may be coming through a third country, such as Mexico.
- Other APAC countries impacted include Korea, Japan and Taiwan for steel and India, Korea and Australia for aluminium. For Australia, overall aluminium exports accounted for only 4% of total exports and so US tariffs will have a minimal impact.
US steel imports by source % total 2023
Source: MNI - Market News/Tradeimex
US aluminium & articles imports by source % total 2023
Source: MNI - Market News/TrendEconomy
JGBS: Cheaper, Fresh 10YY Cycle High, Market Closed Tomorrow
JGB futures are weaker, -6 compared to the settlement levels, after dealing in a relatively narrow range.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, a clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition.
- Outside of the previously outlined Current Account Balance and Bank Lending data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s heavy post-payrolls session. Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
- That aside, the focus this week is on Chairman Powell's mon-pol testimony to Congress on Tuesday-Wednesday, and CPI and PPI inflation measures on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the belly underperforming. The benchmark 10-year yield is up 1.9bps at 1.321%, after hitting a new cycle high of 1.328%.
- Swap rates are 1bp lower to 1bp higher. Swap spreads are tighter.
- Tomorrow, the local market is closed for the National Foundation Day holiday.
STIR: BoJ-Dated OIS Pricing Extends February Firming
BoJ-dated OIS pricing continues to firm in February, with rates rising 1–4bps today, led by the October contract.
- Recent economic data from Japan, including stronger-than-expected wage growth and household spending, has fueled speculation that the BoJ may accelerate and extend its rate hikes beyond prior market expectations.
- Markets currently assign a 2% probability to a 25bp hike in March, a cumulative 51% chance by June, and now fully price in a 25bp increase by September—a shift from late January when a hike wasn’t fully priced in until October.
Figure 1: BoJ-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Friday 31 January
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Tariff In Focus, Cons & Bus Confidence
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) are slightly cheaper but around Sydney session highs on a data-light day.
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s heavy post-payrolls session. Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
- The Australian government is still trying to secure exemptions to new 25% tariffs that Donald Trump says will be imposed on all steel and aluminium imported into the United States, making the case for “free and fair trade” with America. (per Guardian)
- Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
- The bills strip -1 to -3.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (129%), with the probability of a February cut at 89% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer and NAB Business Confidence.
- This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 2.75% 21 May 2041 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.
AUSTRALIA: Data Has Surprised To Upside But Inflation Lower Than RBA Expected
The RBA decision is published on February 18 and the AUD OIS market has a 90% chance of a 25bp rate cut with between 3 and 4 25bp moves by end-2025 and as MNI discussed last week, the RBA rarely doesn’t ease if the market expects it to. In terms of the data, inflation indicators have been lower than the RBA’s November forecasts, activity has been more mixed and the labour market stronger.
- The Citibank Economic Surprise Index has generally been in positive territory since mid-2024. It is also higher than in December. February to date has averaged 15.7 up from January’s 7.1 and December’s 7.6. Therefore, disappointing data is unlikely to be the reason for the RBA to begin easing.
- In terms of the RBA’s November forecasts, the picture is a little different. Inflation data have printed below its projections with both the trimmed mean and headline 0.2pp lower in Q4. To achieve its Q4 WPI forecast of 3.4% y/y, the index would have to rise 1.0% q/q, which seems unlikely as it would be the highest since Q4 2023.
- The RBA will provide an update at the February meeting and any change to the timing of achieving the 2.5% mid-point will be important. It is currently expected in Q4 2026.
- Activity data are suggesting a tentative recovery with Q4 household spending volumes rising 1.4% y/y and nominal imports of consumer and capex goods rising. The RBA forecasted Q4 consumption in the national accounts to rise 1.0% y/y, which requires around a 0.7% q/q increase, which Q4 consumer data suggests is certainly plausible. It has GDP rising 1.5% y/y in Q4, which needs a 0.8% q/q rise, which may still be too strong.
- The labour market has surprised analysts and the RBA to the upside with the unemployment rate in Q4 0.3pp below the RBA’s forecast and employment growth moderately stronger.
Australia Citibank data surprise index
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Cheaper But At Session Bests, Light Local Calendar Today
NZGBs closed cheaper but at session bests, with benchmark yields 1-4bps higher.
- The local calendar was empty today. The next event is a State of the Economy presentation by Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens on Wednesday. The next data release is Card Spending on Thursday.
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s heavy post-payrolls session. Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
- That aside, the focus this week is on Chairman Powell's mon-pol testimony to Congress on Tuesday-Wednesday, and CPI and PPI inflation measures on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
- Swap rates closed 1bp lower to 5bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
- Markets are pricing in 48bps of easing for February, with a total of 120bps expected by November 2025.
FOREX: USD Indices Holding Higher Amid Fresh Tariff Proposal On Steel
USD indices are holding higher in the first part of Monday trade, the BBDXY index last above 1303, aided by the latest Trump tariff threats.
- In early trade, headlines crossed from Trump that steel and aluminium tariffs would be announced US Monday time (although no timing on when they come into effect). These headlines drove USD gains across the board, but we now sit away from best levels.
- AUD/USD got to lows of 0.6231, but sits higher now at 0.6270, only down slightly on end Friday levels. Australian PM Albanese is looking to speak to Trump re the latest tariff news, no doubt seeking an exemption from the proposed Monday announcement. Metal prices have also been firmer, albeit at the margin Iron ore was last around $106.50n/ton. NZD/USD was last near 0.5655, also up from earlier lows.
- USD/CAD is holding higher, last near 1.0445, off around 0.35% in CAD terms. Earlier highs were at 1.4380. Canada is exposed via both steel and aluminium exports to the US.
- Some negative spill over may be evident for JPY as well, given its steel exports to the US, although meetings at the end of last week between Japan PM Ishiba and Trump didn't suggest Japan was in Trump's trade crosshairs.
- US equity futures quickly reversed earlier losses from the tariff headlines as well, a likely yen headwind. USD/JPY did get to highs of 152.21, but sits back at 151.90/95 in latest dealings, around 0.30% weaker in yen terms.
- US yields are down slightly in the first part of Monday trade.
- Looking ahead, Later US January NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB President Lagarde speaks.
FOREX: Leveraged Funds Cut USD Longs, Asset Managers Flip To Yen Long
Last Friday's CFTC positioning update showed leveraged funds cut back on USD longs. The table below presents the weekly change as at 4 of Feb (last Tuesday), along with outright positions by currency and investor type.
- Leveraged contracts also rose for the currencies covered except for CAD. Such shifts are arguably not that surprising as broader USD sentiment faltered through Monday/Tuesday last week amid a tariff delay from Trump on Mexico and Canada.
- Broader USD sentiment mostly tracked sideways to slightly higher as the week unfolded, although the BBDXY index remained well off earlier highs from Monday Feb 3.
- Outright positions from leveraged funds remain skewed in favor of the USD, with net outright shorts against all currencies except for GBP.
- The asset manager space, saw more mixed trends, with yen flipping back to a net long, with decent short covering last week. EUR longs were cut back, while AUD and CAD shorts were added.
- Yen momentum was mostly positive last week amid better data outcomes and hawkish BoJ rhetoric.
Table 1: CFTC Positioning By Currency & Investor Type
| Leveraged Contracts | Asset manager Contracts | |||
| Weekly Change | Outright Position | Weekly Change | Outright Position | |
| JPY | 5087 | -29088 | 15508 | 13695 |
| EUR | 12119 | -22177 | -10646 | 163750 |
| GBP | 2971 | 22899 | 4534 | -65076 |
| AUD | 5732 | -38549 | -3152 | -45557 |
| NZD | 1509 | -16426 | 358 | -36358 |
| CAD | -6872 | -90818 | -10408 | -150112 |
| CHF | 1536 | -13633 | -212 | -40763 |
| MXN | 2316 | -13315 | 1829 | 12008 |
Source: CFTC/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Mixed On Trump's Tariffs
Asian equities traded mixed as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Steel and aluminum stocks across Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia fell sharply, with Nippon Steel (-2.6%), Posco (-4.8%), Tata Steel (-3%), and South32 (-2%) among the major decliners.
- Despite broader trade concerns, Hong Kong outperformed, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.5%, driven by optimism over Chinese AI and telecom stocks. China Telecom surged 10% on expectations of increased AI-related investment. Elsewhere the HSI is 1.40% higher, while the CSI 300 is little changed
- In Japan, stocks fluctuated as Trump’s tariffs pressured steelmakers, but optimism around PM Ishiba’s first meeting with Trump, which avoided any direct trade disputes helped limit losses. The Nikkei 225 is 0.1% higher while the Topix trades unchanged.
- Taiwan equities have struggled with TSMC falling 2.20%, this follows a 1.60% drop in the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index on Friday.
- South Korea's KOSPI is slightly higher today, with Samsung up 0.75%.
- Australia's ASX200 and New Zealand NZX50 are both about 0.24% lower today with steel and aluminum stocks weighing on the market.
- Meanwhile, Indian equities fell, with the Nifty 50 down 0.5% as metal stocks weighed on the index.
ASIA STOCKS: Equity Flows Mixed To End The Week
Mixed Flows to end the week on Friday. Taiwan started last week with heavy outflows, however saw inflows to end the week. India continues to see strong outflows with a net outflow of $9.2b for the year.
- South Korea: Recorded -$169m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$210m. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.21b. The 5-day average is -$42m, better than the 20-day average of -$70m but worse than the 100-day average of -$142m.
- Taiwan: Posted +$649m in inflows yesterday, reducing the 5-day total to -$774m. YTD flows are negative at -$2.04b. The 5-day average is -$155m, worse than the 20-day average of -$102m and the 100-day average of -$105m.
- India: Recorded -$411m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$841m. YTD outflows remain significant at -$9.26b. The 5-day average is -$168m, better than the 20-day average of -$365m but worse than the 100-day average of -$170m.
- Indonesia: Posted -$31m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$233m. YTD flows are negative at -$462m. The 5-day average is -$47m, worse than the 20-day average of -$16m and the 100-day average of -$14m.
- Thailand: Saw +$30m in inflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$74m. YTD flows remain negative at -$256m. The 5-day average is +$15m, better than the 20-day average of -$10m and the 100-day average of -$16m.
- Malaysia: Registered +$21m in inflows yesterday, reducing the 5-day total to -$38m. YTD flows are negative at -$740m. The 5-day average is -$8m, better than the 20-day average of -$33m but worse than the 100-day average of -$26m.
- Philippines: Recorded +$7m in inflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$28m. YTD flows remain negative at -$86m. The 5-day average is +$6m, better than the 20-day average of -$3m and the 100-day average of -$2m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Latest Tariff News Drives Moderate Rise In Crude
More US tariff news has provided support to oil prices during trading today. The market seems to alternate between concerns about the impact of protectionism on global demand and the inflationary effect of tariffs. WTI is up 0.6% to $71.44/bbl following an intraday high of $71.58, while Brent is also 0.7% higher at $75.16/bbl after reaching $75.27. The USD index is up 0.2%.
- US President Trump said that 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports would be announced on Monday. These could impact investment in the US energy sector particularly drillers who require a certain type of steel, according to Bloomberg.
- China’s retaliatory measures for the US’ universal 10% tariff on all imports from China come into effect today. They include 10-15% tariffs on imports of US oil and gas.
- Bloomberg reports that WTI net longs fell again last week and that Brent was also down after rising the previous five weeks, as significant uncertainty regarding the outlook for crude drives caution.
- Later US January NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB President Lagarde speaks.
Gold Heads Higher Again on Tariff News.
- If Friday’s moves for gold was all about US data giving mixed messages about the US economy and the potential for rate rises; today it was more about news that Trump is to levy tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
- The mixed data result from Friday was quickly forgotten as gold’s safe haven bid re-asserted itself as the tariff news broke.
- Opening $$2,861.07 in Asian trade gold has trended higher throughout reaching highs of $2,878.87.
- To add to the tariff headlines coming from Trump on aluminum and steel are claims that Elon Musk has found ‘irregularities’ at treasury.
- Gold’s ascent through all key technical levels continued last week as bullion moved further away from the 20-day EMA of $2,785.85 pulling all major technicals higher in signs that the bullish momentum is likely to continue.
- The coming fortnight sees major gold producers report earnings, and likely to provide insight into gold’s outlook.
- Safe haven demand remains a key determinant of gold’s fortunes and yet as US data provides mixed results for the outlook for rates, the strength of the USD in the face of tariff threats remains a key factor that determines gold’s fortunes in the near term.
China-Japan Yield Compression, Further Gains May Be Driven More By Japan
- Back in January the PBOC ended consecutive months of a bond buying program as the CGB10YR tipped 1.65%.
- Yields have continued to move lower since the peak in November 2020, moving in tandem with the slowing economy.
- From a peak of 3.36% in November 2020, bond yields consistently moved lower as the economy stumbled, and authorities were forced to implement a variety of stimulus measures to kick start growth.
- Back in November 2024 we asked the question as to where Chinese Government Bonds sat from a global fixed income asset allocation perspective.
- At that time, we considered Chinese Government Bonds relative to JGB’s noting “Historically, China government bonds have provided a significant yield pickup to other major bond markets, specifically Japan. Whilst this pickup has decreased in recent years; as China’s inflation profile moderates and Japan moves away from the zero-interest rate policy; China’s yield is still double that of Japan.”
- In November the CGB 10YR yield was 2.08% and the JGB 10YR was 0.95% a yield differential of 1.13%.
Step forward to today, and the relationship between the two has changed dramatically with the CGB 10YR at 1.62% and the JGB 10YR at 1.31% - a yield differential of just 0.31%.
- When the PBOC halted purchases, they cited a shortage of bonds to purchase in their open market operations and stated that they would re-instate purchases ‘at a proper time.”
- The bond purchase policy is part of the programs aimed at easing the monetary environment, specifically for regional governments as they refinance existing debt.
- As some data shows signs of stability in the economy and hopes abound for a better year for housing, the key to authorities is to manage the bond market’s next move, especially when retail investors are heavily invested.
- Investors concerned about the malaise in property have invested heavily in the bond market and authorities would be worried about bubble like conditions, or damaging consumer sentiment were bond yields allowed to rise rapidly.
- As housing shows some signs of ‘green shoots’ – New House prices declines have improved for five consecutive months and Used House price decline improvements have improved for 3 months - indicating that investor sentiment has likely bottomed following the various stimulus measures.
- Additionally, over the weekend China's January CPI y/y moved higher suggesting that the domestic economy may have found a bottom and that 2025 could present upside potential for the economy as stimulus measures' impact start to appear.
- This leaves authorities with a careful environment to manage bond yields with the path of least resistance being to keep yields steady.
- In that context when we consider the CGB vs JGB relationship, the anticipated tightening in CGB yields appears done for now as CGB yields have the potential to stay around these levels in the near term.
- This presents the opportunity to return the CGB overweight to neutral, freeing up capital for other opportunities.
- The Bank of Japan has recently raised rates to 0.50% and it is forecast that the terminal rate for the BOJ is 1.00%-1.50%.
- Data is supportive of that forecast with positives from wages growth and household expenditure.
- Equally the rhetoric from BOJ voting members (particularly the governor) remains hawkish, suggesting that the pathway for yields in Japan for now, likely remains higher.
- With 39bps of hikes priced in currently, it seems possible that JGB yields could move higher from here leaving JGBs to be the main driver for this strategy at a time when CGB yields could do very little.
SOUTH KOREA: Opposition Leader Proposes Stimulus
- The political situation in Korea got more confusing today as the Opposition proposed a KRW30 tn extra budget.
- Aimed at shoring up an economy in which confidence was lacking, it comes in response to the Central Bank Governor pushing back on immediate rate cuts and suggesting that fiscal support is needed.
- Economic growth has stalled in Korea since the impeachment of the President leading to a new leader
- The opposition presented the extra budget idea alongside calls to support the tech sector through policies to support AI development and renewable energy.
- Echoing sentiments from President Trump, the opposition has suggested that they would engage with North Korea if communication lines with the US are re-opened.
- The market reaction was mixed with equities doing very little, but bond yields moved higher throughout the day.
INDIA: DATA Preview: This Week’s CPI to Vindicate Friday’s Rate Cut.
- Having suffered a severe spike in inflation in October, this week sees the release of India’s January CPI, just days following the Central Bank decision on rates.
- Our forecast was for a reduction in rates given the moderating inflation outlook, with expectations that CPI will decline to 4.6%, from 5.22%.
- Whilst still above the RBI’s longer term targets, the softening of prices should continue in the near term as the shock from food prices in October subsides.
- The new RBI forecast projects that retail inflation for the 2025 financial year to be at 4.2%, and they expect to close out the current financial year with inflation at 4.8%.
- The RBI Governor noted that the outlook requires “vigilance from the MPC to navigate the macroeconomic environment effectively, providing the committee with flexibility to adjust policies as needed,” he said post the decision to cut rates.
- The CPI release this week seems set to vindicate the vigilance he refers to and markets will watch closely to understand how extensive the potential rate cuts may be.
ASIA FX: USD/Asia Pairs Higher, But Away From Best Levels
USD/Asia pairs are higher but away from best levels for the most part. Focus remains on USD/CNY as we steadily close the gap with pre-inauguration levels. We were last above 7.3050. The USD/CNY fixing edged above 7.1700 earlier, a 3 week high. USD/CNH got above 7.3160 in the first part of dealings, on Trump tariff headlines (25% on all steel and aluminium imports, to be announced later on Monday).
- This comes after Trump stated reciprocal tariffs would be announced this week, which could potentially impact all countries who trade with the US. For USD/CNY spot, focus will be on the upside 7.32/7.33 region, levels which prevailed prior to Trump's inauguration in Jan.
- Spot USD/KRW spiked higher, but sits back at 1451 now. We got near 1458 in earlier dealings, but the pair remains within recent ranges. It is a similar backdrop for USD/TWD, last around 32.85.
- In SEA, the USD has been bid, which has also reflected some catch up to Friday trends, where the USD was resilient as the NFP print unfolded. USD/MYR has risen back towards 4.4700, while USD/THB has firmed back above 33.80, although both pairs are away from session highs.
- USD/PHP has been unable to re-test sub the 58.00 level. USD/IDR has steadily pushed higher, the pair last near 16350. The rise in US real yields on Friday not helping higher beta plays like IDR.
- USD/INR shot higher at the open, but found selling interest near 88.00, we were last 87.55/60, still off 0.20% in rupee terms.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 10/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/02/2025 | 1400/1500 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in plenary debate on ECB 2023 Report | |
| 10/02/2025 | 1530/1030 |  CA | BOC market participants survey | |
| 10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** |  US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 10/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 10/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 11/02/2025 | 0001/0001 | * |  GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | NO | GDP | |
| 11/02/2025 | 0845/0845 | GB | BOE's Mann lecture on Economic Prospects | |
| 11/02/2025 | 1100/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 11/02/2025 | 1215/1215 | GB | BOE Bailey's speech on changes in financial markets | |
| 11/02/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 11/02/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 11/02/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 11/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits |
| 11/02/2025 | 1350/0850 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 11/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
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