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AUSTRALIA DATA: Surplus Widens But Some Concerning Details

AUSTRALIA DATA

The deterioration in the merchandise trade surplus appears to have stabilised. A small narrowing was expected in October but it actually widened to $5.95bn from $4.53bn as exports outpaced imports. But some of the details were soft with capital goods imports declining for the third straight month, exports weak to China and commodity export volumes generally lower. 

Australia merchandise exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

  • Goods exports rose 3.6% m/m in October but are still down 9.2% y/y after -10.2% y/y. The strength was driven by other mineral fuels and non-monetary gold. Rural goods fell 0.5% m/m and 3.7% y/y after -5.9% y/y.
  • October commodity prices were higher on the month across the board, especially for iron ore. But higher prices weighed on export volumes with only semi-soft coal and LNG rising.
  • Exports to Australia’s two largest destinations remain weak with shipments to China down 21% y/y in October and to Japan -15.1% y/y, while they’re robust to less important markets such as the US, UK, Indonesia and NZ. 

Australia merchandise exports to China y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

  • Merchandise imports rose 0.1% m/m to be down 3.1% y/y after -2.8% m/m & -7.5% y/y in September. Both consumer and intermediate goods saw solid monthly rises of 0.8% and 1.7% respectively, while capex fell 2.1% m/m.
  • The increase in consumer imports was due to non-industrial transport equipment. In terms of investment, machinery & telecoms equipment were weak.  

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