Surprise Win By Left, But Political Instability Ahead As Hung Parliament

France is headed for a hung parliament after the second round of voting as the left New Popular Front (NFP) unexpectedly won the most seats but not enough to have a majority. New elections cannot be held for at least a year and so there is significant political uncertainty. Also President Macron has significant flexibility in who he chooses as the next prime minister, especially if no party has a majority.

• The Le Pen’s right wing National Front (RN), who had the highest share of the vote in the first round and was expected to win the second, surprisingly came in third. Many 3^rd place candidates from the centre and left had pulled out to concentrate the anti-RN vote. The strategy seems to have had a significant impact.
• NFP is a coalition of the Socialists, Greens, Melenchon’s hard left France Unbowed and Communists. Ipsos polling estimates that the group could gain 171-187 seats, far from the 289 needed for a majority. Melenchon’s party looks like it could be the largest in the group with 94 seats, which could undermine the left’s unity. NFP couldn’t agree on its PM candidate before the election.
• President Macron’s Ensemble is in second place with an estimated 152-163 seats, more than double the projection following the first round. Le Pen’s RN is expected to win 134-152, around half of what was forecast.
• France is not used to negotiating and compromising to form coalitions, like in Germany and the Netherlands. So an alliance is going to be difficult and unstable. With NFP not particularly united, especially if Melenchon takes the helm, the centrist-left Socialists/Greens may split to form a coalition with the centrist Ensemble. This will take time and so incumbent PM Attal may stay in a caretaker capacity.
• NFP campaigned on a 14% minimum wage rise, the reintroduction of the wealth tax and a cap on energy prices, according to The Economist.