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A new Emerson College/WHDH New Hampshire surveyhas found that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has gained ten points on former President Trump since November.
- Spencer Kimball at Emerson writes: “Haley’s support has grown in New Hampshire from 4% in August to 28% with under two weeks until the primary. Haley’s base is among older voters, independent voters, and those with postgraduate degrees. Haley leads Trump 38% to 35% among those over 70, leads among voters with postgraduate degrees.”
- The survey comes ahead of the Iowa caucuses on Monday which is expected to provide an indication on the direction of the Republican primary. Although Trump goes into the Iowa caucuses with a strong polling lead, there is a narrow window for Haley to make the race competitive.
- Politico summarises Haley’s hypothetical track: “…if Haley (1) performs well in Iowa, (2) beats Trump in New Hampshire and (3) spends the next few weeks campaigning in her home state of South Carolina and does well there, that such momentum could build nationally and help her take down Trump.”
- Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie suspended his long-shot presidential campaign yesterday, likely providing Haley a boost in New Hampshire but Christie’s ‘hot mike’ comments yesterday stating she's "not up for this," suggests he isn’t confident anyone can challenge Trump.
Figure 1: New Hampshire Republican Primary
Source: Emerson College
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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